Sep 25, 2008

Dole locked in tight race

Cook Political Report

Democrats promised early in the cycle that they would give GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole a tough race and it appears that they have made good on that promise, according to the latest round of polls.

One of the great axioms in politics is that races are never about the challenger, but about the incumbent. There are certainly exceptions to this rule -- Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee Al Franken being one -- but it absolutely applies to Dole.

The evidence is in the polling. While Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan has pulled within the margin of error, and even ahead in one survey, she is not yet a household name and remains largely undefined. A Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research poll for Democracy Corps (August 20-26 of 852 likely voters) had Hagan leading Dole by five points, 50 percent to 45 percent. Yet, the Democrat’s positive/negative ratings were 17 percent to 13 percent and her total name identification was 46 percent. Dole’s job numbers were 38-percent approve to 39 -- percent disapprove and her positive/negative ratings were 37 percent to 34 percent.

Other surveys also point to a very close race. A Garin-Hart-Yang poll for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bev Perdue (September 5-7 of 605 likely voters) showed Dole up by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. And, a Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (September 8-10 of 600 likely voters) had Dole up by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent. Dole’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 59 percent to 36 percent, while Hagan’s were 56 percent to 33 percent.

So, how exactly did Dole find herself in this predicament? First, while Dole certainly has a legislative record to tout, voters seem unaware of it. Second, no one disputes the charge that she didn’t spend enough time in the state during the first four years of her term.

Dole is hardly the first incumbent to be in this position, and such challenges can be mitigated. However, that takes a very intense and early effort -- one that, in Dole’s case, should have started last year. But, Dole had another problem. As chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2006 cycle, she spent two years raising money for the committee, and for GOP incumbents and challengers, which took time away from filling her own campaign coffers. As a result, Dole spent much of 2007 focused on fundraising instead of reacquainting voters with her record. In fact, she didn’t begin that effort until late May.

This gave Democrats and Hagan an opening that they have exploited. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has aired several television ads that portray Dole as ineffective, citing a study that ranked her 93 out of 100 Senators in terms of effectiveness. While the study itself is somewhat subjective, the ads have had their desired effect.

One spot in particular takes aim at Dole’s effectiveness while making some not-so-thinly-veiled references to her age, which for the record, is 72. The ad features two elderly men sitting in rocking chairs.

SENIOR 1: "I'm telling you, Liddy Dole is 93."
SENIOR 2: "93?"
SENIOR 1: "Yep, she ranks 93rd in effectiveness."
SENIOR 2: "After forty years in Washington?"
SENIOR 1: "After forty years in Washington, Dole is 93rd in effectiveness - right near the bottom."
SENIOR 2: "I've read she's 92."
SENIOR 1: "Didn't I just tell you she's 93?"
SENIOR 2: "No, 92 percent of the time she votes with Bush."
SENIOR 1: "What's happened to the Liddy Dole I knew?"
SENIOR 2: "She's just not a go-getter, like you and me."

The spot is reminiscent of an ad that Republicans ran against California Democrat Alan Cranston in 1986 when he was running for re-election at the age of, well, 72. It was a spoof on the then-popular commercials for Bartels & James wine coolers. Needless to say, the spot infuriated Democrats, much the way the DSCC’s ad has angered Republicans 22 years later.

More recently, Democrats have worked to tie Dole to “big oil,” bringing back the two elderly men talking at a gas station. MAN 1: "I'm telling you, Liddy Dole voted to give oil companies almost three billion dollars."

MAN 2: "3 million dollars?"
MAN 1: "No, billion with a 'B.' Three billion in tax breaks for big oil."
MAN 2: "Now don't that burn my oil."
MAN 1: "Liddy Dole's also voted against alternative energy and taken 277,000 dollars from big oil."
MAN 2: "We pay high gas; Liddy gets oil money."
MAN 2: "Maybe it's time we trade in..."
MAN 1: "This pickup and the Senator."

Given that Hagan began the race with something close to zero name recognition, she did not spend as much time as might be expected airing biographical ads or attempting to define herself. The campaign’s most recent ads have gone after what it calls “Elizabeth Dole’s Washington” and how often she has voted with President Bush.

Dole has hit back, labeling her opponent “Fibber Kay Hagan” and calling Hagan a hypocrite for attacking “big oil” when she and her husband own stock in oil and gas companies and have investments in mutual funds that have oil and gas holdings.

In early September, the NRSC went on the air attacking Hagan. According to the script, the announcer says: "Take a closer look at Kay Hagan. She's been in the state legislature for a decade. Hagan helped double the state debt. Gave us the highest tax burden in the southeast. Higher income taxes, sales taxes too. Now Kay Hagan wants to go to Washington?"

HAGAN: "You only need to look at the kind of state senator I've been for the last ten years to see what kind of U.S. senator I'll be."
ANNCR: "Uh huh, that's the problem.”

Although we don’t have any hard numbers, the DSCC did reserve about $6 million in ad time here and it does appear that they (with the Hagan campaign) are outspending Dole and the NRSC, which would partly explain why the race has closed. According to one GOP strategist, there is still time to remind voters what Dole has done for the state and to fill out Hagan’s profile, noting that their ads have succeeded in driving up her negatives.

One of the complicating factors in the race is the other contests at the top of the ballot. The Obama-Biden campaign is making a serious play to win North Carolina and has poured resources into the state. There is also a hotly contested gubernatorial contest, which Democrats felt at the beginning of the cycle was theirs to lose. Thus, the Senate contest has to compete with both races for voters’ attention. Hagan is certainly hoping to be one of the beneficiaries of the effort Obama is making here, but it is not a given that Obama will win the state or that his campaign will help other Democrats down the ballot. North Carolina is one of a handful of states where Sarah Palin’s presence on the GOP ticket may well help Republican candidates, if only because she has energized a once apathetic GOP base. But, Dole can’t count on that any more than Hagan can count on Obama.

Regardless of what happens elsewhere on the ballot, suffice it to say that the race has closed considerably and is now in the Toss Up column.