EMILY's List Unveils Pennsylvania WOMEN VOTE! Campaign

Poll Shows Similar Trends to Ohio, With Clinton Shoring up New Demographics Over Economic and Health Care Concerns

For Release: March 25, 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Much like primary voters in Ohio, likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania are extremely concerned with jobs and the economy, health care, and the war in Iraq and feel that Senator Hillary Clinton is best equipped to take on John McCain and address these issues as the next commander in chief. These are the key findings of a survey of Pennsylvania Democratic voters who are likely to vote in the April 22nd primary. EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE!, a nationwide voter mobilization and education project of EMILY’s List, commissioned the survey to create a tailored program to reach out to Democratic women in Pennsylvania. Based on the survey, and building on more than a decade of experience in mobilizing women voters, the EMILY’s List Pennsylvania WOMEN VOTE! program will begin a campaign to reach out to nearly 150,000 women voters in Pennsylvania through the mail and over the phone in the final weeks leading up to the Pennsylvania presidential primary.

Hillary Clinton Enjoys Strong Support from Blue Collar Base of Pennsylvania Voters

The survey showed Senator Hillary Clinton holds a substantial—13 point lead—over Senator Barack Obama among likely voters in the Democratic primary election in Pennsylvania. Forty-eight (48 percent) of those voters support Senator Clinton compared to 35 percent who support Senator Obama, with 12 percent who remain undecided. Among these likely primary voters, 70 percent hold a favorable view of Senator Clinton and 67 percent hold a favorable view of Senator Obama. While both candidates are viewed favorably by voters, in the head to head match up, Senator Clinton maintains a 16 point advantage among those voters who hold favorable views toward both candidates.

Though there are many similarities between Clinton’s current standing in Pennsylvania and her standing in Ohio prior to the primary, there are also some demographic trends in Senator Clinton’s favor. While Clinton has retained a strong advantage in Pennsylvania among non-college women (56 percent for Clinton, 28 percent for Obama), she has improved her standing among college educated women and non-college men. Clinton currently leads college educated women 52 percent to 39 percent. She also holds a 17 point advantage among non-college graduate men (46 percent for Clinton, 29 percent for Obama).

In this Pennsylvania poll, Clinton currently leads by 23 points among all non-college graduates. By comparison, Clinton bested Obama by only 18 points among non-college graduates in Ohio exit polls, while losing college graduates by the same 4 point margin.

Survey Shows Enormous Anxiety On the Economy and Confidence in Clinton

Consistent with recent trends, voters in Pennsylvania are very pessimistic about the direction of the country and of the economy. Eighty-six (86) percent of these voters think the country is pretty seriously off on the wrong track, and nearly two-thirds (63 percent) believe that the economy in their area is getting worse.

The pessimism and economic anxiety combine to make these voters receptive to Senator Clinton’s experience and solutions-focused message. Senator Clinton leads by a substantial 41percent advantage on having the experience necessary to be president, and a 16 point advantage over Obama on being a strong commander in chief. According to Ohio exit polls, Clinton received 87 percent of the vote among voters who saw her as more qualified to be commander in chief.

Senator Clinton also maintains a substantial lead among those voters who are feeling the pressures of the economic downturn most acutely. Among those voters who say the local economy is getting worse, Clinton maintains a 19 point lead. Voters also believe she understands the financial stresses facing their families (9 point Clinton advantage over Obama) and understands their lives and shares their values (8 point Clinton advantage).

Hillary Clinton Seen as Candidate Best Able to Take the Fight to John McCain

Now that the Republican nominee is established, likely primary voters in Pennsylvania are very receptive to arguments that Clinton will hold Senator John McCain accountable for his support of the policies of the Bush administration—on things like tax cuts for the rich and the war in Iraq. They respond strongly to the argument that because she understands the problems facing the middle class and the pain that is causing American families, that she will take the fight to McCain and make it clear that four more years of George Bush is not acceptable. Sixty-eight percent of likely primary voters find that argument persuasive (43 percent very persuasive, 25 percent persuasive).

With four weeks to go until the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton maintains the advantages she has enjoyed in previous primaries like Ohio, and is solidifying her lead among college graduate women and non-college men. In addition, primary voters are receptive to arguments from her that she will stand up for families by taking the fight to McCain and pushing to move the country away from the policies of the Bush administration. Combined, these factors put her in a strong position to win the Pennsylvania primary.

EMILY’s List Pennsylvania WOMEN VOTE! Program Begins in April

Starting in April, the EMILY’s List Pennsylvania WOMEN VOTE! program will target approximately 150,000 Democratic women voters in southeast Pennsylvania in the last days before the April 22nd primary. Utilizing a combination of new targeting techniques and traditional field tactics, the program will work to reach women in the five congressional districts around Philadelphia in both suburban and exurban areas. That universe of voters will include non-college educated women, college women, and older women who have suffered most in this economic down-turn and thus have the most at stake in this election. The series of mailings and phone calls, will share important information on Senator Hillary Clinton and her strength and experience as a leader. The pieces will also utilize a critical peer-to-peer style of communication featuring the pictures and voices of Pennsylvania women and messages inspired by their real-life perspective on the issues.

EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE! has worked for more than a decade to inform and engage women voters in the electoral process on the premise that when women vote, women win. “Women are a critical sector of the electorate in a primary since they tend to make up a large majority of the turnout in an election.” said Maren Hesla, EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE! director. “It is our hope that through our efforts these women will see what we know to be true – that Senator Hillary Clinton is the candidate with the strength and experience to address the economic issues facing Pennsylvania families and bring real change to our country.”

A copy of the polling memo on the Pennsylvania WOMEN VOTE! survey is available on our website at http://www.emilyslist.org/news/releases/memo_penn_2008_survey.pdf.

Launched in 1995, EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE! works to expand the Democratic electorate and motivate millions of women to vote. The historic EMILY’s List WOMEN VOTE! program, combines polling and research, advanced information technology, sophisticated message testing, and precinct-by-precinct field work to mobilize millions of women voters across the country. EMILY’s List designed WOMEN VOTE! to build a progressive political base that will elect more Democrats, especially women, by helping to increase turnout among women voters year after year.